Trump Delegate Math Still Adds Up

Originally posted at PredictWise.com

For the #NeverTrump-ers, yesterday was a rare day of good news. We finally got a new poll of Wisconsin, and it showed Trump at 35%, trailing Cruz’s 36%, and several points behind Trump’s national average of 44%. Even before this poll dropped, the betting markets already viewed Cruz as the favorite in Wisconsin.

Yet, the markets still view Trump as the overwhelming favorite to become the nominee. PredictWise currently views him as 79% favorite, which is where he’s been hovering for weeks.

Trump’s continued status as the favorite may seem surprising given his weakness in Wisconsin and his narrow path to victory. But it makes sense:

Trump can still win Wisconsin, he can win delegates in Wisconsin despite losing the state, he can make up for the delegates lost later, he can still win on the first ballot (or later ballot) if he falls short of 1,237 pledged delegates.

TRUMP CAN STILL WIN WISCONSIN

PredictWise currently believes he has a 41% chance at winning the state. For some perspective, those odds aren’t much lower than Stephen Curry making a wide open three-point shotand are higher than Ted Williams getting a hit in 1941.

TRUMP CAN WIN DELEGATES WHILE LOSING WISCONSIN

Even if he loses the state-wide vote in Wisconsin (and the 18 statewide delegates that are given to the winner), he’ll win some delegates. Assuming he narrowly loses to Cruz, he could carry three to five of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. Each CD is a Winner-Take-All election worth 3 delegates, so Trump could end up with 9, 12, or 15 delegates even while losing the state overall. If Trump narrowly wins the state, he’d probably get 33 or 36 delegates, so we’re talking about 18-27 delegates at stake.

TRUMP CAN MAKE UP FOR THE LOSS LATER

Trump can make-up for those 18-27 delegates lost in Wisconsin but running up the score in New York (April 19 | 95 “Winner-Take-Most” delegates), Connecticut (April 26 | 28 WTM), Maryland (April 26 | 38 WTM), and Rhode Island (April 26| 19 proportional), which have a combined 180 delegates. With Cruz’s limited appeal in this region and Kasich’s bumbling campaign, Trump winning big in the remaining Northeast states is increasingly likely. Indeed, the newly released markets think he’s an 88% favorite in NY, 76% in CT, 74% in DE, and 71% in in MA, and 78% in RI.

Or he can make up for a loss in Wisconsin with a surprise win in any one of Nebraska (May 10 | 36 WTA), Montana (June 6 | 27 WTA), or South Dakota (June 6 | 29 WTA). While these three states are in the midwest/Big Sky region, which is where Trump struggles the most and Cruz does his best, they are relatively strong Trump states according to Nate Cohn’s national map of Trump support. Trump has decent odds of carrying one of these states.

That same map from Cohn also shows Trump polling stronger than expected in Oregon (May 17 | 28 proportional), Washington (May 24 | 44 WTM), and New Mexico (June 7 | 29 proportional). If Trump does well in those states, he could offset a loss in Wisconsin.

TRUMP CAN STILL BE THE NOMINEE WITHOUT 1,237 PLEDGED DELEGATES

Trump doesn’t need 1,237 delegates at the end of primary elections to become the nominee. Between the end of the primaries on June 6 and the beginning of the Republican Convention on July 18, there are six weeks for each campaign to lobby all the unbound delegates to come their way. After voting is over, there will be 106 unbound delegates to work with. There will also be another 98 delegates who were pledged to candidates that have since dropped out, but are now free to support whichever candidate they prefer. That means there will be over 200 unbound delegates for Trump to showcase his “Art of the Deal” superpowers.

If Trump wakes up on June 8 with 1,236 delegates–one short of a majority–he’s all but certain to convince one of those 200+ unbound delegates to support him. If he instead wakes up with 1,100 delegates, he’ll struggle to convince 137 delegates, especially since in this scenario he must have stumbled down the stretch with some surprising losses.

You can visualize the logic with this graph I sketched up:

Taken together, these four points explain why the betting markets remain so confident about Trump’s chances. He can still win Wisconsin, he can still win delegates in Wisconsin despite losing the state, he can make up for the delegates lost later, and he can still win if he falls short of 1,237 pledged delegates.

Trump State-by-State Delegate Race

Originally posted at PredictWise.com

The betting markets currently believe Trump is the overwhelming favorite to become the GOP nominee. This is despite Trump winning less than 40% of the popular vote, less than 50% of pledged delegates, and actually being below his delegate targets according to Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman. Are the markets overrating Trump?

At this point, there are only three plausible outcomes of the Republican race:

1. Trump earns a majority of pledged delegates (1237+) and becomes the nominee.

2. Trump falls short of a majority, but convinces enough unpledged delegates to get on the Trump Train, allowing him to emerge victorious in Cleveland.

3. Trump falls short of a majority, can’t get enough unpledged delegates to cross over, and someone else emerges

.

Here’s why the betting markets think the first two outcomes are much more likely than Trump losing.

MARCH

Trump currently needs 542 more pledges delegates to reach a majority (1,237) and become the presumptive nominee. Even though he’s won less than half of delegates now, the terrain ahead is favorable for his chances.

This Tuesday, Trump is likely to add 58 delegates to his count. PredictWise thinks Trump has an 87% at winning Arizona, which is a winner-take-all state with 58 delegates. Such a victory should weaken the sting of his near-certain blowout loss in Utah, which the markets think Cruz is the 94% favorite. Recent polling also suggests Cruz will clear 50% of the vote in Utah, giving him all 40 delegates.

Taken together, Arizona and Utah will give Trump 58 new delegates, expand his lead over Cruz by 18 delegates, and leave him 484 delegates short of a majority.

APRIL

The first half of April is the barren part of the election season. There are only three contests, and two of them don’t even have a public preference vote (North Dakota and Colorado). That leaves Wisconsin as the contest of note.

Wisconsin is hard to predict. There are no betting markets, no recent polls, and even its geography and demographics don’t give many hints. It borders states won by Cruz, Rubio, and Trump. It’s a midwestern, very white state, which sound good for Cruz, but it also has a low share of very conservative, frequent church-attending evangelicals–which Cruz needs. The polls we do have point to a Trump lead–but it’s a small one, and maybe now nonexistent.

Wisconsin is also a “winner-take-most” primary, so the winner of the state gets a disproportionately high amount of the state’s delegates. As we saw in Missouri, a tiny shift in the the vote outcome has huge ramifications for the allocation of delegates. For now, let’s follow the evidence we have and say Trump narrowly edges out Cruz in Wisconsin, and takes home most of its 42 delegates.

The final two weeks of April will likely be Trump’s best stretch of the election. It will have to be for him to reach 1237. On April 19th is Trump’s home state of New York and its 95 delegates, most of which are allocated at the congressional district level–three delegates at stake per CD. The winner of each CD gets 2 delegates, unless they reach 50% of the vote, which gives them all 3 delegates. Recent polling, and what we know about Trump’s supporters, suggest New York may be the first state he wins with over 50% of the vote. If he does so, he’s likely to capture nearly all 95 delegates.

One week after New York comes Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. These five states combine for 172 delegates, although 54 of Pennsylvania’s will remain unbound. That means 118 delegates are at stake, and are allocated on a mix of winner-take-all, winner-take-most, and proportional rules. The little polling we do have, along with geographic and demographic indicators, suggest this is favorable Trump territory and he’ll take home most of those 118 delegates.

Assuming he wins Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, Trump will gain between 220 and 240 delegates, on top of the 58 he’d get from Arizona. For the sake of argument, let’s assume he wins 230, which would leave him 254 delegates short of 1237.

MAY

May brings us five elections:
Indiana on May 3
Nebraska on May 10
West Virginia on May 10
Oregon on May 17
Washington on May 24

There is virtually no polling on these five states, but we do have this detailed national polling map, from Nate Cohn. From this, along with what we know about Trump’s base, Trump is a big favorite in West Virginia, a favorite in Indiana, and competitive in Nebraska, Oregon, and Washington. If you assume he wins WV, IN, narrowly wins or loses in OR and WA, and loses NE, Trump should end up with around 100 delegates, bringing him within 154 delegates of 1237.

JUNE

The last day of the primaries is June 7th, when Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, and the biggest prize of them all–California–vote. At stake are 303 delegates–of which Trump will need to win around half of them.

New Jersey is easy to predict for Trump. Numerous polls and indicators suggest that NJ is one of Trump’s best states. New Jersey allocates its 51 delegates on a WTA basis, so if you subtract that from the 154 he needed, he’s now only 103 delegates short of a majority.

New Mexico only has 24 delegates to give out, and it does so on a strict proportional basis, so it doesn’t really matter if Trump wins or not. The little polling we do have and what he know about the demographics point to Trump winning at least a 1/3 of the vote–so let’s assume he wins 8 of the 24 delegate. Trump is now only 95 delegates short.

South Dakota and Montana have a combined 56 delegates, all of which are awarded to the winner. While Trump seems to fare better in these two states than the rest of Big Sky and the midwest, let’s assume Cruz hangs on and takes all 56 delegates. Trump still needs 95 more, but he has 169 to play with in California.

California only awards 10 delegates to the statewide winner. 3 delegates are given to the winner of each of the 53 congressional districts–159 delegates total. Polling suggests Trump has a state-wide lead over Cruz, but Cruz’s support typically tends to be concentrated in pockets of deeply conservatives areas, whereas Trump enjoys broader and more evenly-distributed appeal. This positions Trump to win most of CA’s districts, even if he’s running even with Cruz at the state level. If he does so, Trump will get most of those 159 delegates, pushing him over 1237 and becoming the nominee.

Trump could easily stumble and fall short. If he loses Wisconsin and Indiana, he’d have sweep nearly all of the delegates in the Northeast and California, or make up the difference with surprise wins in Nebraska, South Dakota, or Montana. So while Trump has an obvious path to a majority, he also is walking on an obviously narrow path.

The markets nonetheless remain confident in Trump’s position, because if he doesn’t get to 1237 by June 7th, he’s almost certain to be within striking distance and close enough where he could convince a handful or two of unpledged delegates to join the dark side and vote Trump.

While it’s easy to imagine elite Republicans conspiring to deny Trump the nomination if given an opportunity, such a conspiracy will be much harder to pull off in reality. One of the defining traits of this election has been the total lack of competence from the Republican establishment. Another defining trait has been Trump’s large, frenzied, and violent base of support–a base that’s currently the largest faction of the GOP rank-and-file. While it would make for a great script in House of Cards, it’s hard to imagine the bumbling Republican elite boldly standing up to the powerful, enraged mob of Trumpism, and giving the nomination to Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or anyone else they think could and should beat Hillary. Instead they’ll do what they’ve been doing all along:

Lose to Trump.

This time is different: Republican anti-establishment candidates are doing better than ever

I’m curious if the current GOP mania with outsider, anti-establishment candidates is just a temporarily blip that will correct itself. After all, the 2012 Primaries had Santorum, Cain, and Bachman all temporarily leading in the polls. 2008 had Huckabee and Ron Paul, each of whom had some success.

So I downloaded all GOP National Primary polling data from the last three elections, and grouped all the candidates into two camps: “Establishment” and “Anti-Establishment.”

For 2008:

Establishment Candidates: McCain, Romney, Guilianni, Fred Thompson

Anti-Establishment: Huckabee, Ron Paul

2012:

Establishment: Romney, Perry, Gingrich, Huntsman

Anti: Santorum, Bachmann, Cain, Ron Paul

2016:

Establishment: Bush, Rubio, Walker, Fiorina, Kasich, Christie, Jindal, Graham, Pataki

Anti: TRUMP!, Carson, Cruz, Huckabee, Rand Paul, Santorum

If you include Fiorina in the anti-establishment camp, then the trend is even more pronounced.

While it’s still more likely than not that the establishment will get their way, after looking at this graph, this election cycle really does seem different. The long term trends over the past 9 years show a steady decline in establishment support, which matches up with what we’re witnessing in Congress and the overall difficulty the GOP has had in controlling the Tea Party.

How 1,000-year lifespans could remake the economy

Originally posted at The Week

If anti-aging research develops as some predict, this pattern could change. The boundaries of growing up and growing old greatly limit our options in life. Our entire physical prime is spent figuring out our career path, earning money, raising a family, and saving. Removing the cap of old-age decline would open up a lot of possibilities. People could choose multiple careers and areas of study. They could also have more freedom over when to raise kids and when and how often to take long breaks (instead of a single retirement and annual small vacations). Your whole working life could change — as would the priorities you make at each stage of your life. Here's what a lifespan could look like:

Read in full at The Week